As the world is dealing with new variants of COVID-19 and other health concerns, India stands at a crossroads that should concern each and every citizen about “Is India Ready For Covid 3.0?” The question is not if another pandemic will occur, but if we have learned anything from the grave errors that made our nation extremely unsafe for the first two waves of COVID-19. Unfortunately, the answer appears to be a resounding no.

Let’s Look Back At The Haunting Echoes of Our Recent Past

The images are seared into our collective memory: dead bodies floating in the Ganges, cremations carried out in parking lots, begging families soliciting oxygen cylinders on social media, and hospitals turning away patients to die on their doorstep. These were not the images of a dystopian nightmare, but the grim reality of India in the second wave of COVID-19 in 2021. The officially confirmed death toll of over 530,000 is just the tip of an iceberg of human catastrophe that experts estimate could have killed over 4 million.

During the first wave in 2020, the Indian health system was strained but continued to function due to strict lockdowns that decimated the economy and pushed millions into poverty. The Delta variant second wave exposed the depth of how weak our infrastructure really was. Hospitals ran out of oxygen, ventilators, and beds. The middle class were scrambling for basic medical care. Most families were wiped out within a week, with a generation left traumatized by loss and abandonment.

How India Will Face Covid 3.0 With Crippled Medical Machinery?

What is so ominous about the specter of COVID 3.0 is that the core issues identified during the recent waves have remained unfixed. India’s healthcare system, which is already strained, continues to function on the same feeble pillars which spectacularly collapsed in 2021.

Our health system has always been underfunded, with India only investing 1.35% of its GDP in health, compared to the world average of 5.9%. There is an enormous shortage of doctors, with only 0.7 doctors per 1,000 people, compared to the WHO standard of 1 per 1,000. This shortage is even more severe in rural India where 65% of India resides, creating a perilous shortage that would be disastrous in the event of another health disaster.

The oxygen crisis linked to India’s COVID tragedy has shown only incremental improvements. States have generated more oxygen, but the infrastructure to deliver it remains broken and inadequately functioning. The designed revamps of medical oxygen infrastructure have been done piecemeal, exposing broad areas of the country to the same problems that caused suffocation fatalities in 2021. No programs are drawn to train and upskill the healthcare professionals in operating and maintenance of PSA generators. 

Hospital beds are gradually on the rise. India has approximately 0.5 beds per 1,000 population, far from the world average of 2.9. ICU beds, being very crucial for critical COVID patients, are generally available in cities. The upgrade plans have largely remained on paper, thwarted by sluggish government response and fund reprioritizations.

Over the last three years all of the generators have mostly neither be regularly operated nor serviced. Mock drills failed to restart this defunct machinery. This has led to a growing dilemma among the medical fraternity. Health Directors across all the states unanimously acknowledge this concern. It paves the hint to an urgent need to reimagine how the “Vishwa-Guru” prepares for future health emergencies for medical oxygen, especially in rural regions where the challenges are acute and critical.

Nearly 65 % of India’s population resides in villages, where even now access to medical oxygen remains limited. Their availability at the right time will either be a bridge or wall between life and death. The lack of decentralized oxygen infrastructure forces patients to travel long distances to urban regions, often under dire circumstances. This not only worsens outcomes including exploitation but also places an unsustainable burden on territory hospitals which are mostly in cities. So, will the government ever recognise these people as their own citizens and do the favour to upgrade their lives, or they are just the mere vote banks of the nation?

The Public Really Need To Save Themselves From The Circus Of Primetime Indian Media

It is also alarming that India is still open to disinformation and digital divides. In the past waves, falsehoods spread faster than the virus, and hence individuals delayed vaccines, encouraged untested cures, and became dangerously complacent. Social media websites became arenas where facts battled conspiracy theories, and the facts lost public attention more times than not.

The internet connectivity gap which clearly arose during the pandemic continues to exist. There are millions of Indians who do not have consistent internet, thus they depend on word-of-mouth information, which can change as it is relayed through communities. This unequal access to information makes spaces where COVID 3.0 can spread unchecked, yet individuals are unaware of the danger or how to safeguard themselves. In the meantime, where the primetime Indian media that should focus on the prevention of the situation, would be found busy in accusing ‘this party and that party’, shifting the focus from prevention of covid 3.0 to politicisation of covid 3.0!

The economic loss because of past pandemics has heightened the susceptibility of individuals in India towards another pandemic. The majority of families have not yet recovered from the economic loss they suffered in 2020-2021. The unorganized sector, which employs close to 90% of the Indian workforce, continues to be fragile with very minimal safeguard systems. Another wave can push these families from poverty to abject poverty, and it can lead to a humanitarian crisis and the health crisis too.

The chasm that enabled COVID to be so lethal for India’s poor has probably widened. Urban slums, where individuals cannot socially distance themselves from others and easily access healthcare, are now inhabited by more jobless individuals. Recall the situation of Dharavi– imagine if Covid 3.0 occurs, what would be the state of World’s Largest Slum! Rural India, already lacking adequate medical centers, has further deteriorated as medical staff migrate to cities in their search for good jobs.

The Mental Health Time Bomb and The psychological wounds of the earlier waves are an unseen vulnerability that may strengthen the blow of COVID 3.0. India saw historic levels of anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder during the pandemic. The mental health infrastructure of the country, which was already substandard, was overburdened by the number of cases. 

Children who lost their parents, healthcare providers who saw unimaginable agony, and families with long COVID complications are also psychologically vulnerable. Another outbreak would unleash a mental health emergency that would last much longer than the virus, labeling a generation built on trauma and reduced resilience. Will the crippled government machinery ready to witness the biggest democracy as a nation of traumatised youth? 

India seems to be in a dangerous state of complacency. As things slowly move back to normal, everyone seems to have forgotten the ghastly events of 2021. Although we blame the government for majority of things, but India’s own people are a dangerous breed of arrogance and ignorance! Everyone is wearing masks less, social distancing is mostly ignored, and large crowds have resumed again with not enough precautions. This change in culture permits the virus to easily spread quickly. The virus in India perhaps know the casual attitude of Indians!

Political leaders, taken aback by the second wave, now speak of the pandemic as if it’s gone, believing that if they say they have won, they will have won. For instance, recall the recent “allowance of victory parade of IPL’s RCB in Chinnaswamy stadium”. Wasn’t the government aware that such a large crowd in such crucial times can attract something unwelcomed- oh, it did, not in the form of covid 3.0 outbreak, but in the form of stampede! The same overconfidence that led them to proclaim success prematurely before the Delta wave is now incorporated into policy discussions. Election rallies, religious gatherings, and large celebrations are taking place without the caution required for the risk of COVID 3.0.

New mutations emerging in other parts of the globe remind us that India is deeply interconnected with the global COVID trends. Being a giant global travel hub, the nation is most vulnerable to new infections emerging elsewhere that can lead to new outbreaks. Border controls, having been tightened throughout the crisis, have now been relaxed, which can allow new strains to flood in undetected.

India is very populous and well connected, so it would be very easy for the virus to mutate and spread. If COVID 3.0 has features that can bypass current immunity or spread more effectively, India might again be at the center of a pandemic globally. The blow this time, though, might be worse because people are fatigued with the pandemic and are more relaxed.

COVID 3.0 threat calls for immediate and full action on multiple fronts. We we need and demand is an upgradation of healthcare infrastructure. That means raising hospital bed capacity, providing adequate oxygen supply, and providing healthcare in rural regions. Also, there is a need to significantly augment medical education and training programs to address the dearth of doctors that was extremely damaging in previous waves.

Information systems require immediate intervention to combat misinformation and provide proper health guidance to all members of society, rather than primetime Indian Media shouting and doing unethical politics! Economic resilience must be constructed with robust social protection arrangements that cushion households in lockdowns without rendering them desperate. Informal sectors must be formalized with protection arrangements to prevent many people running away from cities, which transmitted the infection during the first wave.

The ray of hope, at the end, and a reminder we need to comprehend!

India’s COVID-19 experience has shown how vulnerable systems can turn a health crisis into a global humanitarian disaster. The issue of being ready for COVID 3.0 is no longer a theory; it is the survival of the nation. The failure of the nation to solve the root causes of its pandemic vulnerabilities renders it extremely vulnerable to future pandemics. The moment for complacency has passed. Each day of inaction to improve our healthcare infrastructure, our information spine, and develop economic resilience adds to the potential death toll of the next wave.

The specters of the dead of the previous waves haunt us to learn from their sacrifice. The issue is not if India will encounter COVID 3.0 but if we will have the political will and social resolve to make sure that history does not repeat its most bitter pages. The decision is ours, but we must make it now. India’s fate hangs in the balance depending on whether we can take the agony of the past and turn it into the wisdom we must live by.