US President Donald Trump has claimed that a “migrant invasion” has taken over Los Angeles, in a bid to justify sweeping migrant arrests during Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids that began on June 6. His administration has followed suit, ramping up the rhetoric with phrases like “violent insurrection,” “illegal alien criminals,” and even “foreign enemies.”

The latest escalation includes deploying 700 Marines and 4,000 National Guard troops to the streets of LA, an act that has ignited fierce protests and put the President on a constitutional collision course with California Governor Gavin Newsom.

Let us get one thing straight: Trump is not wrong to address illegal migration. No country can afford a porous border policy, and the United States is well within its rights to enforce the rule of law. The problem isn’t what Trump is trying to do—it’s how he’s doing it.

Because the “invasion” Trump warns of? It’s a statistical mirage.

–According to the U.S. Office of Homeland Security Statistics, the number of undocumented migrants in California has actually declined – from 2.9 million in 2010 to 2.6 million in 2022.

The number of undocumented Mexican migrants, Trump’s favored punching bag, has seen a particularly steep drop. Between 2010 and 2018, about 605,000 undocumented Mexican nationals exited California – many voluntarily, some due to deportation.

A 2023 study published by UCLA shows that this trend began in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, not under Trump’s presidency. As Mexico’s economy stabilised and opportunities dwindled in the U.S., many simply chose to go back.

But don’t let facts get in the way of a political spectacle.

What Trump has crafted is less of a policy push and more of a performance – a calculated play for his base that thrives on fear, chaos, and division. And the deployment of military troops on domestic soil isn’t just disturbing, it borders on dictatorial.

California’s Governor Newsom, who has filed a lawsuit against the administration, called the move a “brazen abuse of power.” And he’s not wrong. Federalising the National Guard against the wishes of the state, for the first time in 60 years, reeks of autocratic overreach.

Let’s also consider the violence angle Trump loves to wield.

According to Real-Time Crime Index data from the Public Policy Institute of California, violent crime in the state dropped by 4.6% and property crime by 8.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year. Therefore, the idea that undocumented migrants are wreaking havoc is not just unsupported, it’s plain fiction.

A study spanning 150 years of U.S. Census data found that migrants are 60% less likely to be imprisoned than native-born Americans. Yet, Trump’s White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt insists on painting every undocumented individual as a rapist, murderer, or pedophile. That kind of demonization is just plain propaganda.

Democracy…

But the protests in LA are no longer just about immigration. They’ve become a proxy war for the future of American democracy. Trump is betting that the public will support his use of brute force. He’s hoping the optics of Mexican flags waved by a few rioters, and graffiti sprayed during a protest, will overshadow the constitutional questions swirling around his presidency. He’s daring the Democrats to look weak again, and he may be succeeding.

For Democrats, the challenge is steep. They’re caught between a base that wants radical resistance and a middle America that still wants law and order. California’s Gavin Newsom has emerged as a loud and visible challenger to Trump, but his motives are double-edged – every speech, every lawsuit, every press conference is as much about 2028 as it is about 2024.

Still, Democrats would be wise to remember the lesson of 2020’s Black Lives Matter protests. Public support can evaporate quickly if the movement is seen as chaotic or anti-law enforcement. Trump knows this and is already pushing in the direction –  that Democrats are siding with “street militias” and “mob rule.” It’s classic baiting, but it works when the opposition lacks clarity and cohesion.

So, where does this leave us?

At a dangerous crossroads.

As President Donald Trump intensifies his rhetoric around a so-called “migrant invasion,” it’s crucial to pause and ask: what do the facts actually show?

The Quiet Return, Why Many Mexican Migrants Are Leaving the U.S.
Long before Trump’s political rise, undocumented Mexican migrants had already begun a steady departure from the United States. This was not due to fear of ICE or newly erected border walls, but due to deeper economic and social shifts that began as far back as the 2007–2009 Great Recession.

A 2023 study co-authored by UCLA social demographer Anne Pebley found that the voluntary return of Mexican immigrants became increasingly common after the economic downturn. The reason –  Improved financial prospects in Mexico itself. In contrast, job opportunities in the U.S. dwindled for low-wage workers, making the calculus for staying far less attractive.

Pebley’s research, published alongside a consortium of U.S. academics, also pointed to a broader context: since the Great Recession, the economic gap between the two countries has narrowed, and for many migrants, going home began to make more sense – not just emotionally, but financially.

Add to that the hostile political climate in the U.S., particularly the rise in anti-immigrant sentiment and punitive legislation, and the trend becomes even clearer. The decision to leave is often a rational response to declining dignity and opportunity in the country they once hoped would offer both.

Crime and the Migrant Myth
A cornerstone of the administration’s argument is that undocumented migrants are fueling crime in American cities. But this too doesn’t hold up under scrutiny.

According to the Public Policy Institute of California, violent crime in the state fell by 4.6% in 2024 compared to the previous year, while property crime dropped by 8.5%. Contrary to alarmist stories, key offenses like robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, and larceny have all declined.

And what about the long-standing trope that migrants are more likely to commit crimes? That, too, is demonstrably false. A July 2023 study that examined 150 years of U.S. Census data used imprisonment rates as a proxy for criminal activity and found that migrants are 60% less likely to be incarcerated than native-born citizens.

So, when Trump and his allies speak of “criminal illegals,” they’re not citing crime reports or data, they’re referencing fear and fiction.

What Californians Really Think
Perhaps most revealing is the perspective of the people who actually live in the state at the center of this debate.

The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) has conducted decades-long annual surveys tracking residents’ attitudes toward immigration. In the most recent survey (February 2024), 60% of Californians said they believe immigrants are a benefit to the state, not a burden. While this is a notable decline from previous years—66% in 2023 and 78% in 2021—it still represents a clear majority in support of migrant contributions.

The declining numbers may reflect fatigue, frustration, or growing polarization. But they do not signal support for mass raids, militarization, or xenophobic policies. Californians continue to see immigrants as a net positive, even as national politics try to weaponize them as threats.

Los Angeles on Edge, Military on the Streets, Protests in the Air, and a Political Firestorm Brewing

As unrest deepens in Los Angeles, the response from Washington is growing more forceful, and more controversial.

On Tuesday night, the Los Angeles Police Department imposed a downtown curfew, warning of mass arrests if protestors violated it. The curfew remained in effect until 6 a.m. Wednesday, part of a broader crackdown on the rapidly expanding protests against mass immigration raids.

In a sharp escalation, President Donald Trump deployed 700 Marines and increased National Guard forces in the city to 4,000, invoking the language of war by vowing to “liberate” Los Angeles from what he described as “animals” and a “foreign enemy”, terms left intentionally vague, but unmistakably incendiary.

California Governor Gavin Newsom, who has emerged as one of Trump’s most vocal critics, accused the president of a “brazen abuse of power.” In a lawsuit filed against Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Newsom is attempting to block what he describes as an illegal federal takeover of the National Guard.

The tension reached a constitutional flashpoint when, on June 7, Trump federalized the California National Guard—the first such move in 60 years to occur against the explicit wishes of a sitting governor. This has drawn comparisons to historic episodes of domestic military intervention and reignited debate over executive overreach.

Protests, Power, and the Political Chessboard
Beyond the scenes unfolding in downtown LA, the protests are beginning to reshape the national political direction in real time. What began as a reaction to Trump’s immigration raids has morphed into something more foundational: a referendum on power, legitimacy, and the limits of federal authority.

For President Trump, the crisis is being framed as a test of dominance—both over dissent and over Democratic strongholds. His messaging strategy remains consistent: provoke, escalate, and dominate the headlines. But the risks are rising. As troops come face-to-face with volatile crowds, the margin for error narrows dramatically. A single misstep could convert a political calculation into a humanitarian crisis.

At the same time, Democrats face a dilemma of their own. While their base is energized and demanding resistance, overreaction from the progressive wing could risk alienating centrist and swing voters – particularly the same demographic that turned away from the party in 2024. It is a high-wire act: to channel public anger without appearing to endorse chaos or disorder.

Governor Newsom appears to be threading that needle, for now. His defiance of Trump has given Democrats a visible figure of resistance, and may well serve his national ambitions ahead of 2028. But even he walks a fine line: too much confrontation, and he risks becoming a foil for Trump’s law-and-order narrative.

…Again, Democracy

These protests may prove to be the most consequential domestic uprising of Trump’s second term. They are not merely about immigration or even state vs. federal power. They represent a deeper struggle over what kind of country the United States will be in the decade ahead – one governed by executive edict and militarized policing, or one that continues to balance protest with democratic restraint.

If the White House views the unrest as a political asset, it may underestimate the potential for backlash. Public tolerance for violence, whether by protesters or uniformed troops, is finite. Trump may be playing a dangerous game with fire, one that could either rally his base or unravel the fragile threads of civil order.

Behind the bluster and battlefield posturing of the Trump administration lies a deeper, more calculated effort: to normalize military force in domestic immigration enforcement and to reframe political opposition as a threat to national security.

Administration insiders have reportedly grown frustrated with what they see as a disappointing pace of deportations, and Trump’s latest rhetoric appears designed to build momentum, cast deportation as a patriotic necessity, and manufacture public consent for tactics once considered off-limits.

In a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed titled “Send in the Troops, for Real,” Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton spelled out the administration’s case: enforce immigration law at all costs, even if it means confronting what he dubbed “left-wing street militias” allegedly backed by Democratic politicians. This portrayal – of urban dissent as rebellion and immigrants as invaders – is straight from the Trump playbook: divide, exaggerate, and militarize.

Does Belligerence Equal Political Strength?

Trump’s gamble is that chaos can be repurposed as strength. He hopes to convince the public that what’s unfolding in cities like Los Angeles is not just unrest, but an existential threat that justifies extreme measures. At campaign rallies, his fiercest rhetoric has consistently drawn the loudest cheers. That visceral connection with his base – who see Trump as a warrior against both perceived disorder and liberal elites – is the engine of his political capital.

But there’s a dangerous paradox at play. While polling shows many Americans do support stricter immigration enforcement and deportations, public support begins to erode when enforcement is perceived as indiscriminate or cruel – especially when it ensnares peaceful, long-term residents. Trump learned this during his first term, when the controversial family separation policy at the southern border sparked national outrage and left a stain on his administration.

Should something similarly symbolic – another “kids in cages” moment – emerge from this wave of mass deportations, it could undercut Trump’s carefully built narrative of strength. He may have moved the public to the right on immigration after Biden’s floundering border policies, but he remains vulnerable to the perception of overreach and cruelty.

The Last Bit, A Crisis That Could Define an Era

Trump’s increasingly forceful moves in Los Angeles are not just about deporting migrants, they are about reshaping the very notion of dissent in America. By deploying the military and casting protestors as enemies, he is attempting to reset the boundaries of acceptable state action. It is a test: of public tolerance, of constitutional checks, and of the resilience of democratic institutions.

If the protests escalate, if clashes result in casualties, or if images of violence begin to flood the media, Trump could find himself facing the same peril he did during the pandemic – blamed for worsening, not solving, a crisis. History shows that once a president loses public trust in moments of national trauma, it is nearly impossible to win it back.

And while Trump may envision himself as a strongman restoring order, the question now is not whether he can project power – but whether Americans want that kind of power at all.

Beacuse, the facts are clear: there is no migrant invasion, crime is not soaring, and the use of military force against American civilians should alarm every citizen, regardless of party. But Trump thrives in the grey space between truth and fear. He’s already shown, twice, that he can win when the conversation is dominated by emotion, not evidence.

The real risk is that in trying to stop Trump, the opposition loses the plot. Because while Trump overreaches, the Democrats still haven’t reached a message that resonates. If they can’t stand firmly for both law and humanity, for security and civil rights, then Trump’s dystopian narrative may yet become reality.

And make no mistake – if this manufactured migrant crisis becomes the new normal, the America that emerges will be one where fear trumps freedom – A Manufactured Crisis for Political Gain. When people who once risked everything to be here are now choosing to return, it raises a larger question about what kind of country the U.S. is becoming.